The Nerf Sword of Damocles and An OTE Contest!
(This post was originally entitled the ‘Needle of Damocles’ but the very clever Chris Hayes just saw me and raised me on this point on his show this AM.) Three insights: One: The Sword that Became a...
View ArticleSmart Talk on Sequester Myths
Two avowed centrists, Tom Mann and Norm Ornstein, have a nice “myths” piece in yesterday’s WaPo. I’m running off to do the Diane Rehm radio show on this stuff, so no time to summarize, but I...
View ArticleThe Tyranny of the Average
As someone who works with numbers a lot, I find averages to be tremendously helpful. I’d be lost without them.* But there’s one area where averages have been misleadingly used of late, an area where...
View ArticlePaul Ryan’s New Budget: Been There, Didn’t Do That
We won’t have details until the AM, but as he describes it in a WSJ oped, Rep Paul Ryan’s budget looks a lot like the platform he and Gov Romney ran on, and lost on, last year. Repeal Obamacare and...
View ArticleMore on the Ryan Budget: A Guidepost on the Road to Gridlock
Like I said last night, we’ll have lots to say about Rep Ryan’s new (old, really—he even keeps the same name from last year!) budget as we crunch through the numbers. But the overview is the same:...
View ArticleAmidst the Madness, Let’s Not Overlook the CPC’s Budget
Allow me to join the chorus of voices in support of another budget out this week, one I fear may be overlooked, by the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Here’s the exec sum, and note what comes first:...
View ArticlePassing Some Real Time with Bill Maher
Had great fun on the Bill Maher show last night with the wonderful Rachel Maddow and reasonable Republican former Congressman Tom Davis. Bill is a true force of nature. Henceforth, I will not be able...
View ArticleNo, Government Spending Really Isn’t Going Up Right Now
On the Bill Maher show the other night, I pointed out that contrary to the talking point that government spending is spiraling out of control, it in fact went up only 0.6%, 2009-2012. Whenever I say...
View ArticleAre Health Costs Really Slowing? And What Does it Mean If They Are?
[This post is based on Chapter 5 of the Council of Economic Advisers new Economic Report of the President.] The fact shown in the first chart below—a decline in the rate of health spending per...
View ArticleToday’s Papers
A few things that caught my sleepy eyes: –Jim Tankersley reviews the work of the expansionary contraction crowd, which is almost exclusively the work of economist Alberto Alesina with co-authors. I’ve...
View ArticleRandom Musings On the Budget Debate
I know, last month was all about budgets—we’re past that now, right? Nuh-uh. Just a few random synapse-firings for your consideration. –The next entry in the budget sweepstakes is of course the...
View ArticleThe Work-Around Strategy of the President’s Budget
Getting ready to talk jobs on CNBC so just a brief note on the big news out this AM on the President’s budget, due on next week. President Obama next week will take the political risk of formally...
View ArticleAnother Day, Another Budget…
Up early, amply caffeinated, and already mixed it up with Joe Kernan on CNBC on the President’s budget due out later today, though details are trickling out. Here are the White House’s bullets:...
View ArticleThe Political Economy of Reinhart/Rogoff and the Austerity Debate
Allow me to quickly try to tie together some current events (zipping up to NYC to give this talk). First, you’ve got the Reinhart/Rogoff (R&R) dustup which is generating lots of ink in the AMs...
View ArticleCBO’s New Budget Update: A Fire Hose for Hair-On-Fire Austerions re Near Term...
The good news is that according to CBO’s new budget update, the budget deficit is coming down fast and under their assumptions, will bottom out at 2.1% of GDP in 2015. The debt/GDP ratio begins...
View ArticleCBO Says President’s Debt Path is Even Lower Than WH’s Own Estimate
Just in case your weekend isn’t getting off to an exciting enough start, here’s another chart to make you go “hmmm…” The Congressional Budget Office always re-estimates the President’s budget. Not...
View ArticleThe Facts of the Case and Why We’re Not Following Them
Michael Linden of the Center for American Progress has an excellent piece out this AM which simply collects a bunch of facts about trends in fiscal and economic variables that have moved in ways that...
View ArticleCBO Scores the Immigration Reform Bill and Finds…(wait for it)…It Reduces the...
Well, would you look at that: CBO just released their analysis of the fiscal impact of the immigration reform legislation from the Senate and it turns out that the bill is expected to lower the budget...
View ArticleOTE Crosses the Pond
Headed over to Europe for a week to talk fiscal policy–I know…many snarky comments come to mind, but I will resist. It’s pretty much mathematically impossible to get your country’s balance sheet in...
View Article
More Pages to Explore .....